The inauguration is a little over a week away, and I don’t want to be a buzz kill, but…David Sanger at the NYT has a fascinating piece out today on some surprising conflicts between the Bush administration and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program.  Barack Obama is going to face some very, very tough policy decisions during his first term with respect to Iran.  In fact, former Secretary of Defense William Perry said this week that Obama will probably have a crisis with Iran during his first year in office.  Sanger outlines the dilemma that will face Obama:

Early in his presidency, Mr. Obama must decide whether the covert actions begun by Mr. Bush are worth the risks of disrupting what he has pledged will be a more active diplomatic effort to engage with Iran.

Either course could carry risks for Mr. Obama. An inherited intelligence or military mission that went wrong could backfire, as happened to President Kennedy with the Bay of Pigs operation in Cuba. But a decision to pull back on operations aimed at Iran could leave Mr. Obama vulnerable to charges that he is allowing Iran to speed ahead toward a nuclear capacity, one that could change the contours of power in the Middle East.

The political dynamics are extremely complicated as well.  President Obama will have a tremendous amount of political capital to spend when he takes office in 9 days, and some of it will go to the massive stimulus bill that I’m sure will pass but may cost him some of his popularity.  If he talks with Iran, which is most likely based on his campaign promises, he will be criticized by Republicans and hawkish Democrats who will put a lot of pressure on him to take a harder line.  He doesn’t want Iran to go nuclear on his watch either for many reasons–nuclear proliferation being near the top of the list.  On the other hand, if talking doesn’t do much good, a strike on Iran (whether by Israel or the US) would likely cause a lot of anger and disillusionment among his base.  This could be Obama’s toughest foreign policy challenge barring an unforeseen international event.

Ok, man, that was depressing just thinking about.  Thanks a lot David Sanger!